In addition, the carrying capacity in the far east was not adequately estimated from area and rainfall, and so was estimated independently in model 7. Lion predation rate was estimated to be 10% (assumed constant in all areas), and the 1993 drought mortality was estimated to be 48%. Fig. 5 Observed abundance of African buffalo (dots) and model predictions (solid line) for the zones of the Serengeti and for the total population Table 2 Final ‘best’ model parameter estimates that predict population changes

for the five different regions (L was 10% for the final model). Hunting was greatest in the North zone   k Hunting mortality in 1978 Average lion Sepantronium in vivo mortality rate (%) North ∞ 0.31 10 Far west ∞ 0.16 10 Linsitinib molecular weight Centre ∞ 0.11 10 Far east 24,999 0.00 10 South ∞ 0.10 10 Fine-scale analysis of buffalo and human population changes The fine scale spatial analysis produced a gradation in the rates of buffalo population increase (Fig. 6) during the hunting period (1970–1992). There were negative rates of increase in the northwest and positive rates of increase in the east and south. The far west was more complex but rates of increase were still lower there than in the east. Fig. 6 Fine scale spatial differences in the rate

of population change 1970–1992 showing the greatest XMU-MP-1 loss in the north and far west. Dark areas represent negative population increases and light areas represent higher values (r = –0.3 to +0.05) A similar pattern (Fig. 7a) is exhibited during the increase phase (1998–2008) with population decreases in the northwest and west and population increases in the east. In the

increase phase, the areas of population decreases were more concentrated and restricted to the northwest and west of the park compared to the hunting phase. While there were areas in the western corridor that still exhibited population decreases the area south of Grumeti Game Reserve shows population increases compared to the hunting phase. Fig. 7 (a) Fine scale spatial differences in the rate of population change 2000–2008 nearly showing the slowest increase in the north and far west. Dark areas represent negative population increases and light areas represent higher values (r = –0.9 to +0.48). (b) Instantaneous rate of population change of hunter population densities to the west of Serengeti National Park. Dark areas represent high population growth whereas light areas represent low population growth (r = –0.6 to +0.59). Location of fastest increase is adjacent to areas of slowest increase in buffalo seen in Fig. 7a This pattern of buffalo population growth is the converse of the human population growth adjacent to the protected area (Fig. 7b). Hunters living within 40 km of the protected area were estimated as 20,000 in 1973 and 36,000 in 2002. The instantaneous rate of increase was 0.03 per year, similar to the national average.